Trump’s tariff, the “strange fruit” of the world economy, feels like witnessing the fall of the Roman Empire

U.S. President Trump announced the details of the mutual tariff on April 2. In addition to imposing a uniform 10% tariff on all countries, we will evaluate the tariffs and non-tariff barriers set by each country and add a higher tax rate. President Trump praises himself, “April 2 will be remembered forever as the day when American industry was revived, the day when the United States began to become rich again” and “It is one of the most important days in American history.”

“The United States was exploited”

It’s called “Trump tariff”. He explains that “we were exploited” as the reason for twisting a selfish policy that ignored the rules of world trade. The victim’s consciousness is completely exposed. Indeed, according to U.S. trade statistics, the U.S. trade deficit in 2024 is about $1.2 trillion (about 180 trillion yen), the largest ever. The U.S. government reduced the trade deficit by suppressing imports through mutual tariffs, etc. It emphasizes that the U.S. government’s tax revenue will increase significantly due to higher tariff rates, and that the U.S. financial situation will improve.

I understand your desire to claim that the huge trade deficit threatens U.S. security. However, the reality is that it is U.S. companies and U.S. consumers who have benefited greatly from the huge trade deficit. The ability to support the world’s largest economy cannot be measured by the simple addition and subtraction of the trade deficit.

Why do Google, Apple, Meta, Amazon, and Elon Musk, who reign in the global economy, exist in the United States? From the point of view of Japan, which is controlled by these companies, I would like to say, “It is us who are exploited.”

Watching President Trump’s flashy performance made me feel like I was up close witnessing the history of the fall of the Roman Empire, which conquered the world at that time, more than 2,000 years ago. I’m just confused by the decline of political and economic power while holding out that I’m the strongest in the world. Because of his impatience that he could not find a way to recover, he abandoned the logic of world domination that he had built himself and ran to the current match, which backfired and began to lose his influence on the world. If this repetition continues, the world domination of the United States, which has lasted since the 20th century, will come to an end.

That doesn’t mean you can’t stand by. Take advantage of the overwhelmingly dominant position to master the tyranny. If you forgive this, democracy is over. It overlaps with the early 20th century in the United States, which lynched many black people on the grounds of “protecting white women from black people” in the early 20th century. Billy Holliddy sang about black people hanging from trees with lynching, saying, “Strange fruits grow in the South,” and appealed for justice. If human beings try to live freely and equally, racism and murder cannot be tolerated. Anyone can understand it. However, it is true that it was rampant in the United States.

Is the golden age coming?

Trump’s tariffs are truly a “strange fruit” for the global economy. Who would respect and trust the United States even if they claim to be heading for the golden age and overskone the logic that no one accepts? I can see the ending. The status as a world leader will be in danger, and the rules built to support human wisdom will collapse.

However, President Trump believes that the “strange fruit” that can be obtained from mutual tariffs is a great blessing for the United States. Because it created the power to win the 2016 presidential election. Trump complained that the excess of free trade had ravastated the U.S. manufacturing industry, and he gained great support from the Midwest, which was called the Last Belt, where only rusty factories remained.

Of course, it will be inherited in the second term in 2025. It was fully anticipated that it would be more specific and intense to steer towards the revival of the U.S. manufacturing industry. If you impose a high tariff rate on the trading country, build a tall and thick wall to prevent imports, and see that “the golden age of the United States will come from now on”, you will be stepping on the spur of applause. It is the same idea as building a wall on the Mexican border to prevent illegal border crossings.

Unfortunately, the improvement in the trade balance and the revival of the manufacturing industry are not the right answer, even if the facts are convenient for the United States. It’s too childish. Rather, as many economists point out, it works negatively for the U.S. economy and U.S. consumers. Goldman Sachs has already pointed out the possibility of a recession.

In the first place, tariffs are not a substitute for establishment even if the country raises or lowers tariffs on a whim. If tariffs are abused, protectionism will spread around the world. It caused a serious trade war, which was said to be one of the causes of World War II. After the war, it is common sense of the world economy that under the framework of multilateral cooperation such as the GATT (General Agreement on Customs and Trade) and the WTO (World Trade Organization), the relevant countries will hold free trade in accordance with the results through consultations or lawsuits.

Before the world economy decays

When will the “strange fruit” disappear?

Billy Hollidy started singing in 1939. At the concert, he always sang it as the last song and continued to complain about the repeated racist outrages of white people. 83 years later, in March 2022, the U.S. government banned racist lynching by law. You can’t look at the strange fruit called Trump tariff, the fruit that has already rotted, for so long. The global economy will soon begin to rot.

The mechanism of Trump’s tariffs this time has been reported by many media, so I will omit it here. To be honest, I don’t understand the calculation basis, so I don’t have the confidence to explain it.

The mutual tariffs of the main countries and regions are as follows.

Mutual tariffs of each country (excerpt)

Country name Tariff rate

Japan 24%

China 34%

European Union 20%

Taiwan 32%

India 26%

Korea 25%

Thailand 36%

Indonesia 32%

(Mexico and Canada are exempt from trade agreements with the United States)